The forecast has taken a worrisome shift to the north. It is now forecasted to hit Freeport which is 50 miles southwest of us rather than Port O’Connor which is 120 miles southwest of us. That’s not good. Plus, the forecasts have been shifting further in our direction over the last couple of days. That’s not good, either. The College decided late tonight to close until Monday as have just about every other college and school district in the vicinity. So…
We are planning to head inland early Friday morning to my parents’ old house – the house I lived in from 93-99 and the same place we evacuated to in 2005 when Hurricane Rita approached. The only difference is that we were under a mandatory evacuation in 2005 while, as of now, we are still in voluntary evacuation mode.
On Friday morning, we will volunteer.
Three days out from forecasted landfall has Ike hitting just south of Matagorda Bay down by Port O’Connor and Port Lavaca. We are still inside the cone of doom and there’s still a lot of time for the track to change one way or the other.
If that wasn’t worrisome enough, the Houston Chronicle’s SciGuy posted a graphic of the forecast for Hurricane Rita three days out from forecasted landfall in 2005. It looked exactly like Ike’s forecast. Rita was forecasted to hit Port O’Connor, but then made a late, sharp turn to the north and made landfall at Sabine Pass, hitting Port Arthur and Beaumont directly.
Sure, there are different factors at work this time than when Rita was approaching, but it just goes to show that the forecasts can be far off just these few days out.
The purple star is about where we are. It appears Hurricane Ike is headed far south of us, down toward Brownsville near the Texas / Mexico border. At least, we hope Ike is headed far south of us. Forecasts this far out can be off a bit and we’re still in the cone of doom so we have to keep a watch out.