Three days out from forecasted landfall has Ike hitting just south of Matagorda Bay down by Port O’Connor and Port Lavaca. We are still inside the cone of doom and there’s still a lot of time for the track to change one way or the other.
If that wasn’t worrisome enough, the Houston Chronicle’s SciGuy posted a graphic of the forecast for Hurricane Rita three days out from forecasted landfall in 2005. It looked exactly like Ike’s forecast. Rita was forecasted to hit Port O’Connor, but then made a late, sharp turn to the north and made landfall at Sabine Pass, hitting Port Arthur and Beaumont directly.
Sure, there are different factors at work this time than when Rita was approaching, but it just goes to show that the forecasts can be far off just these few days out.